Simon Cowell's potential music business replacements

Monday, the always enlightening Nikki Finke published a scandalicious account of the back room talks between "American Idol" and "The X Factor," claiming that both were courting music-industry veteran Tommy Mottola for a spot at their judges' table. Finke also contends the next two in line are Interscope Geffen A&M head Jimmy Iovine and Madonna's manager Guy Oseary.   

Let's face it, even the world's eminent music-biz honchos won't satisfy the Simon Cowell loyalists who simply think he's irreplaceable. But anticipating the inevitable, we are adding to the speculation with our own top five industry picks for "Idol" 10.0 (plus, a bonus).

1. Lyor Cohen (CEO, Warner Music Group)

Successes: Discovered and developed Run-DMC. Ran Def Jam Records in the '90s (Ludacris, Ashanti, Foxy Brown), sold it to Universal Music for more than $100 million.Took charge at Warner Music Group and its dozen or so subsidiaries, one of which signed Season 7's Jason Castro.

Pros: In addition to being tall, dark and handsome, Cohen is brash and somewhat intimidating -- a perfect combination for scores of insecure kids trying to find their footing in an industry that eats them for breakfast. Welcome to a harsh reality!

Cons: Cohen's unique manipulation of the English language (he spent part of his childhood in Israel) may be hard for the average "Idol" viewer to understand. Are subtitles an option?

Likelihood: 20%. With WMG's recent track record (Nickelback, Jason Mraz, Michael Buble) and the music business constantly teetering on collapse, keeping an eye on the prize is key.

2. Jimmy Iovine (chairman, Interscope Geffen A&M)

Successes: Produced seminal albums for Bruce Springsteen, Tom Petty and Stevie Nicks in his early years in New York. Started Interscope in 1990 and helped engineer the gangsta rap explosion on the West Coast. Launched the careers of Eminem, No Doubt, Black Eyed Peas, Lady Gaga.

Pros: A fast talker (see also: Mottola), Iovine has experience from multiple vantage points and an ear that has proved to be on point through dozens of music fads and going on five decades. He would be the music-biz equivalent of Scorsese.

Cons: Never one to miss an opportunity to plug his own acts, we could be looking at themes like "Hits of the Pussycat Dolls" and "Chart Toppers From Last Week."

Likelihood: 40% If there's nothing in it for the IAG family (i.e. a full partnership to put out the "Idol" albums), we don't see Jimmy jumping at this chance.

  3. Tommy Mottola (co-owner, Casablanca Records)

Successes: Launched and nurtured the careers of Celine Dion, Jennifer Lopez and his ex, Mariah Carey, as chairman and CEO of Sony Music. Married Latin singer Thalia. Resurrected the former home of disco, Casablanca Records, with releases by Lindsay Lohan and Mika.

Pros: Since judge Kara DioGuardi considers Mottola not only a mentor, but also the person who gave her that  first break (her earliest credits are for songs by Ricky Martin and Jessica Simpson commissioned under Mottola's watch), their familial back-and-forth banter could be a hoot.

Cons: Mottola has been off the map for a minute, but it's not clear how his macho 'tude will play with the audience. 

Likelihood: 60%. According to Finke, Mottola is already knee-deep in a bidding war to end up either on "Idol" or "The X Factor" and could end up pocketing millions. Looks like he wins either way.  

4. Ron Fair (Chairman, Geffen Records)

Successes: Supervised soundtracks for "Pretty Woman" and "Reality Bites." Produced hits for Christina Aguilera, Vanessa Carlton and Pussycat Dolls. Signed and developed Keyshia Cole. Masterminded the English remix of "Slumdog Millionaire's" "Jai Ho."

Pros: Fair's penchant for over-the-top hats and colorful suits would be a weekly fashion-police treat, while his astute understanding of the modern music business might eliminate future fluke victors who don't sell records.

Cons: Though Fair is known as something of a social butterfly around Hollywood, he can also spend weeks on end holed up in the studio completely absorbed in his project of the moment.

Likelihood: 50%. If a judge's spot were offered to Fair, we think he'd seriously consider it, but the decision could still go either way.

5. Guy Oseary (principal, Untitled Entertainment)

Successes: Madonna. Need we say more?

Pros: A dashing Israeli, Oseary started as a label man at 17 and rose through the ranks to eventually run Maverick Records, home to Alanis Morissette, Michelle Branch and the Prodigy, selling more than 100 million records during his tenure. And: See above.

Cons: Despite his high-profile management clients (Madge, Demi Moore, David Blaine) and raging parties, Oseary is notoriously press-shy and likes being behind the camera (note his excellent book of photography, "Madonna: Sticky & Sweet"). Though it wouldn't be a first for "Idol," his TV persona is ostensibly a crapshoot.

Likelihood: 20%. We can't imagine an entertainment entity other than Madonna becoming Oseary's No. 1  priority, even if it's only for part of the year.

Bonus:

Clive Davis (chief creative officer, Sony Music Entertainment)

Successes: Signed legendary rockers Janis Joplin, Bruce Springsteen, Billy Joel and Santana at CBS Records. Discovered  Whitney Houston and shepherded the careers of Barry Manilow and Dionne Warwick as president of Arista Records. Founded J Records, home to Alicia Keys and Leona Lewis. Executive produced nearly all the "Idol" alumni albums.

Pros: There really is no one more qualified to critique aspiring pop stars than the man most in the music biz simply refer to as Clive. The man's track record is unparalleled, and his hands-on knowledge of the "Idol" franchise makes him a natural.

Cons: Clive may be too much of a talker for TV's quick-cut soundbite-sized blips, as anyone who's ever attended a staff meeting or his annual pre-Grammy party can attest.

Likelihood: 30%. "Idol's" demanding schedule would be hard on anybody, never mind someone turning 78 this year!   

-- Shirley Halperin (follow Idol Tracker on Twitter @idoltracker)

Photos, from top: Lyor Cohen (Warner Music Group), Jimmy Iovine (Los Angeles Times), Tommy Mottola (Associated Press), Ron Fair (Ann Johansson / For the Los Angeles Times), Guy Oseary (Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times), Clive Davis and Smokey Robinson (Anne Cusack / Los Angeles Times).

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